Population impact of the Suhanko mine
The preparation of the municipality of Ranua and the planning of its service production needs are strongly guided by the future demographic development of the municipality, and at the moment the Suhango mine is the biggest expected variable.
The municipality of Ranua commissioned MDI Public Oy to carry out a study on the population impact of the Suhanko mine on the population projection of the municipality of Ranua in autumn 2023.The study is comprehensive and has been carried out by MDI's population projection expert Rasmus Aro, M.Sc., Ph.
The study has modelled the future demographic development of Ranua in three different scenarios during 2022 - 2040 by age group, gender and year. The scenarios are based on different assumptions about the implementation of the Suhanko mine and its impact on the population. The scenarios are:
A baseline where the Suhanko mine does not materialise and the demographic logic is consistent with previous years.
A cautious scenario in which the Suhanko mine goes ahead, but a significant proportion of new workers move to Rovaniemi instead of Ranua and commute for work. Based on similar developments in previous mining sites near a larger city.
An optimistic scenario in which the Suhanko mine is realised and a higher share of employed people move to Ranua than in previous mining investments in other municipalities.
Jobs created in Ranua and people employed in Ranua
The study presents modelling of jobs created in Ranua, jobs likely to be created in Ranua and jobs likely to be created in Ranua as a cumulative change per year based on the modelling.
Based on the modelling assumptions, 340 new jobs would be created in Ranua as a result of the mining investment. In addition, at its peak, about 180 jobs would presumably be created in Ranua, even if the jobs are recorded in the rest of Lapland/country.
The exact distribution of jobs 'registered' between Ranua and the rest of the country is partly uncertain, and there may be some discrepancies.
The group of 180 jobs includes direct and indirect jobs that are located outside Ranua in the modelling, but which are linked to the location of the mine by sector (especially jobs in the mining and construction sectors.
It is worth noting that the number of jobs may vary if the annual working hours of Suhanko mine employees differ from the industry average.
Most of the jobs would be direct jobs linked to the mining investment, but about one fifth of the jobs would be indirect jobs. The number of jobs would increase in the extractive industries in particular, but also in sectors such as construction and wholesale and retail trade.
The development of the employed population living in the area would not be as strong, especially due to the proximity of Rovaniemi. In the cautious development scenario, the number of employed persons living in the municipality would first increase to about 74 persons at the peak of the construction phase, and rise to about 103 employed persons at the peak of the construction phase. In the optimistic scenario, the number of people employed in the municipality would increase by about 180 at the peak of mining activity.
Projected demographic trends 2022 - 2040
The study has examined the actual demographic development in 2010-2022 and the projected demographic development in three different scenarios in 2022-2040.
The population of Ranua has decreased by 718 people, or 16.6%, between 2010 and 2022.
The population development of Ranua varies in different scenarios over the period 2022 to 2040.
In the baseline scenario, the population is projected to decrease by 449 people, or 12.4%.
In the cautious scenario (a moderate share of the new labour force moves to Ranua), the population is projected to decrease by 322 persons, or 8.9%. The trend would level off by the end of the 2020s.
In the optimistic scenario (a moderate share of the new workforce moves to Ranua), the population is projected to decrease by 229 persons, or 6.3%. The population would increase slightly in the 2020s, but the development in the 2030s remains weak.
The population decline is due in particular to a higher number of deaths than births. Even if the significant effects of the mining investment are realised, the contraction will only end temporarily.
The full report can be downloaded here.